The men’s National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Final Four is set to tip off today. No. 2 seed University of Connecticut (UConn) will match up against No. 3 seed University of Illinois, and No. 1 seed University of Arizona will play No. 1 seed University of Michigan.
Illinois beat No. 9 seed University of Iowa 71–59 in the first game of the Elite Eight. Illinois’ size played a huge role in that victory, allowing them to grab 17 more rebounds than Iowa and score 40 points in the paint.
Arizona had an impressive game against No. 2 seed Purdue University, winning 79–64. Arizona’s defense held Purdue to their second-lowest point total of the year and only allowed them to make 38 percent of their shots from the field.
Michigan had no trouble in their game against No. 6 seed University of Tennessee, winning 95–62. Michigan led the game 48–26 at halftime, and senior Yaxel Lendeborg scored 27 points, his best performance so far in this year’s tournament, to cement the victory.
No. 2 seed UConn pulled off a dramatic 73–72 win over No. 1 seed Duke University in the Elite Eight. After being down by 19 points, UConn clawed their way back and secured their spot in the Final Four after freshman Braylon Mullins made a three-pointer in the final seconds of the game.
With such strong teams, this year’s March Madness Final Four is sure to be exciting. Here’s what you should expect for each matchup.
No. 2 University of Connecticut (UConn) Huskies vs. No. 3 University of Illinois Fighting Illini (Saturday, 6:09 p.m. EDT on TBS, TNT and truTV)
This game will be UConn and Illinois’ second matchup of the season—their first in late November ended with a 74–61 UConn victory.
UConn is no stranger to playing in the Final Four. Huskies head coach Dan Hurley led UConn to back-to-back national championships in 2023 and 2024, and since 2009, the Huskies have gone on to win the championship any time they make it to the Sweet 16 round. Seniors Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed Jr. have also stepped up big in this year’s tournament, scoring over 20 points per game (PGG) in each of UConn’s four games leading up to the Final Four.
Despite UConn’s impressive comeback in the Elite Eight, Illinois has looked much more dominant in this year’s tournament: The Fighting Illini have beaten every team they have faced by ten or more points, and those teams weren’t easy opponents. Although Illinois was saved from playing the reigning national champions, No. 1 seed University of Florida—after No. 9 seed University of Iowa beat the Florida Gators in the Round of 32—Illinois did rack up an impressive ten-point win against No. 2 seed University of Houston, a team that was one of the favorites to win the South Region.
Illinois runs one of the most efficient offenses in the country: They have the lowest turnover rate, highest free throw percentage and highest offensive rebounding percentage of the four teams still standing. That elite rebounding is owed to their extremely tall lineup—seven players in their eight man rotation stand at 6-foot-6 or taller. What makes the Illinois lineup even more dangerous is that every player on the court can shoot three-pointers at a high percentage, despite their large size; seven of the eight players in the Illinois rotation have shot over 30 percent from the three-point range this season. Illinois also rosters Big 10 Freshman of the Year Keaton Wagler, who is averaging 17.5 PPG in the tournament. Wagler’s offensive strength—combined with the height and shooting capabilities of the rest of the team—will make the Illinois offense very tough to stop.
My Prediction: Illinois
No. 1 University of Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 1 University of Michigan Wolverines (Saturday, 8:49 p.m. EDT on TBS, TNT and truTV)
This game has the potential to be one of the best matchups we’ll see this March. Both Arizona and Michigan have played extremely well in the first four rounds of the tournament: The Wolverines have won each of their games by more than 20 points, and the Wildcats have won each by double digits.
These teams were statistically almost identical during the regular season. Michigan shot 51 percent from the field, while Arizona shot 50 percent; Michigan scored an average of 87.7 PPG, while Arizona scored an average of 86.5. Arizona had a small defensive edge and averaged slightly more steals and rebounds per game than the Wolverines.
Those similarities have mostly held up during the tournament. Michigan has averaged 94 PPG; and Arizona has averaged 86.1. Michigan has shot 40 percent from the three-point line and 53 percent from the field; and Arizona has shot 36 percent from three-point range and 60.5 percent from the field. Arizona has also consistently outrebounded Michigan.
The teams’ rosters also have similar levels of talent. Michigan is led by Lendeborg, the Big 10 Player of the Year, and sophomore Aday Mara, the Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year.
Arizona rosters senior Jaden Bradley, the Big 12 Player of the Year, and freshman Brayden Burries, who was unanimously voted to the All-Big 12 First Team.
To win their matchup against Arizona, Michigan will need to push the pace offensively and speed up the game. The Wolverines average over 20 PPG in transition and fast-break plays due to their efficient ball movement. Junior guard Elliott Cadeau is averaging eight assists per game in the tournament. In contrast, Arizona’s leading assist-maker, Bradley, is only averaging 4.4. If Cadeau can keep it up, it will be difficult for Arizona to guard the Michigan offense.
Arizona’s biggest advantage is their elite rebounding and strength in the paint. Peat is extremely effective inside the paint, and if the Arizona offense can get Peat the ball down low, the Wildcats will have ample scoring opportunities. The only wrinkle for Arizona’s paint-oriented offense is Mara, who is averaging three blocks per game during the tournament and is an elite rim defender. Arizona doesn’t shoot many three-pointers, so they need to be extremely effective inside the arc and overwhelm Mara in order to keep pace with Michigan’s elite offense.
It’s likely Michigan’s fast-paced offense will simply be too much to handle for Arizona, especially if the Wolverines continue shooting well. If Mara can defend the paint against the Arizona offense and stay out of foul trouble, it will be tough for the Wildcats to create many scoring opportunities. It will certainly be a close matchup, but if Michigan performs at the same level they have all year—and throughout the tournament—they have a good chance to punch their ticket to the championship.
My Prediction: Michigan