In many ways, this year’s women’s National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) tournament has been what we’ve expected. Entering the Sweet 16, every No. 1 seed and all but one No. 2 seed—the University of Iowa—remain. The dominant No. 1 seed University of Connecticut (UConn) blew No. 9 seed Syracuse University out by 53 points, and the No. 1 seed University of Texas and the No. 1 seed University of South Carolina each won their games by over 40 points. There have been a few surprises, though; for one, No. 10 seed University of Virginia defeated Iowa 83–75 in double overtime to advance to the Sweet 16—cementing their name as the only women’s NCAA First Four team ever to do so. No. 6 seed and underdog University of Notre Dame beat No. 3 seed The Ohio State University as well, but this year’s tournament has been relatively stunner-free.
That being said, it is March, which means that all bets are off. Can Virginia defy the odds—again—and upset the No. 3 seed Texas Christian University (TCU)? Will UConn advance past the No. 4 seed University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC) to make it to their 30th all-time Elite Eight? Only one thing’s for certain: We are in for a treat watching these games unfold in the coming days.
No. 2 University of Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 6 University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Friday, 2:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN)
In the Round of 32 Notre Dame upset Ohio State, in part thanks to junior Hannah Hidalgo’s 26-point performance. Now, they will face the Vanderbilt Commodores, who are led by sophomore Mikayla Blakes. Blakes is the leading scorer in the country, averaging 27.0 points per game (PPG), while Hidalgo is the third-leading scorer in the country, averaging 25.2 PPG. Watching the two stars go shot for shot during Friday’s matchup is sure to be electrifying.
Vanderbilt is largely favored to win. They are, of course, powered by Blakes, but four other players on the Commodores average double-digit points, and the team may be too well-rounded for Notre Dame if they are powered solely by Hidalgo—she averages almost twice as many PPG as any of her teammates and four times as many steals and assists per game. Notre Dame hasn’t been to the Elite Eight in seven years and would have to pull off yet another upset to advance to the next round. Ultimately, whichever team can contain the other’s star and wreak the most havoc on defense will move on to the next round.
Lucille’s prediction: Vanderbilt
Maia’s prediction: Vanderbilt
No. 1 UConn Huskies vs. No. 4 UNC Tar Heels (Friday, 5:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN)
The Huskies are coming off a blowout 98–45 win over Syracuse last Monday. In that game, UConn had a 53-point lead at halftime—the second-largest in NCAA tournament history. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, beat their second-round opponent, the University of Maryland, 74–66.
Last year, UNC made it to the Sweet 16 with a starting five composed of seniors and graduate students. But this year, the Tar Heels are relying on their two standout sophomores, Elina Aarnisalo and Lanie Grant. The pair scored or assisted 51 of the team’s 74 points against Maryland. But UNC’s strength as a team lies in their defense: The Tar Heels held their first- and second-round opponents to just 13.2 percent from three. But with impressive shooting from UConn senior Azzi Fudd—who made 13 of 18 field goals last game, totalling 34 points—and the dominance of sophomore Sarah Strong, who leads UConn in points, rebounds and steals, UNC’s defense may struggle to stop a UConn offense that averages about 89 PPG.
A huge factor in this game will be the matchup between Strong and UNC’s forwards and centers. If they can contain Strong, they might have a chance of keeping the game close. However, UConn is undefeated this season, so the Tar Heels will have to be near perfect to come out with a win.
Lucille’s prediction: UConn
Maia’s prediction: UConn
No. 1 University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Bruins vs. No. 4 University of Minnesota Gophers (Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN)
In UCLA’s most recent game, against Oklahoma State University, senior center Lauren Betts almost secured a double-double—which is achieved when a player scores double digits in two statistical categories—with a whopping 35 points and nine rebounds. Betts, who is 6-foot-7, has been unstoppable in the paint against every opponent UCLA has faced this season. Minnesota’s tallest player, 6-foot-5 Sophie Hart, will have to work hard to compensate for the extra two inches Betts has on her.
Outside the paint, look for the matchup between the two starting point guards: Minnesota’s Amaya Battle and UCLA’s Kiki Rice. Both seniors have been hot this tournament: Rice averaged 14 PPG over her first two tournament games and Battle averaged 17.5 PPG. Against No. 5 seed University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) in the Round of 32, Battle also scored the game-winning point—at the buzzer.
In January, the Bruins won against Minnesota, 76–58. In that game, the Gophers shot 23.7 percent from the three-point line. But in the Gophers’ last game, against Ole Miss, Minnesota shot a staggering 58.3 percent from behind the arc. Additionally, in the first two rounds of the tournament, 63 percent of Minnesota’s field goals came from assists. Their ball movement has looked stronger than in the regular season, where 57 percent of Minnesota’s field goals came from assists. With Betts covering the paint, the Gophers will have to rely on their increased ball movement and their outside shots to fall if they want to come out with a win.
Lucille’s prediction: UCLA
Maia’s prediction: UCLA
No. 2 Louisiana State University (LSU) Tigers vs. No. 3 Duke University Blue Devils (Friday, 10:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN)
LSU and Duke have faced off before, in a December meeting where LSU won 93–77 despite trailing at the start. However, after that game, Duke replaced junior Jadyn Donovan with sophomore Riley Nelson in the starting lineup and went on a 17-game winning streak. As the Blue Devils showed with their 23-point triumph over No. 6 seed Baylor University last Sunday, they have changed a lot since the start of the season.
But LSU is the higher seed for a reason. The Tigers play at a famously fast pace, with efficient offense and better rebounding than Duke. LSU has gone to the Elite Eight the past two years, and Kim Mulkey is one of three coaches remaining in the tournament who have won an NCAA championship—the others are UConn head coach Geno Auriemma and South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley.
Duke’s main advantage lies in their ability to win close games. In the final, high-pressure moments, Duke has outscored their opponents by an average of 12.4 points. On the other hand, LSU often falls apart in these situations: They’re outscored—on average—by 21.3 points. As a second- and third-seed matchup, the game is likely to be close, and if Duke can bring the game down to the final moments, they could come out with a win.
Lucille’s prediction: Duke
Maia’s prediction: LSU
No. 2 University of Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 3 University of Louisville Cardinals (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. EDT on ABC)
A few days after beating No. 6 seed Alabama 69–68 in a game with 18 lead changes, Louisville will be playing Michigan, who beat North Carolina State University in the Round of 32 by almost 30. Michigan is 0–4 all time against Louisville, and most recently lost to the Cardinals in the 2022 Elite Eight.
Led by sophomore Olivia Olson, who averages 19.2 PPG, Michigan has a more efficient offense than Louisville: They score almost 84 PPG playing in a stacked Big Ten conference, compared to Louisville’s 79 PPG. Otherwise, in nearly every statistical category, the Wolverines and Cardinals rank similarly. Both teams average about 16 assists, 40 rebounds and 10 steals per game. It’ll be interesting to see how such comparable teams face off against each other. The game is sure to be close, and out of all the matchups in the Sweet 16, this will be the one to watch.
Lucille’s prediction: Michigan
Maia’s prediction: Louisville
No. 1 University of Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 University of Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday, 3:00 p.m. EDT on ABC)
Texas and Kentucky are coming off very different second-round experiences. The Longhorns won 100–58 against the University of Oregon, while the Wildcats won 74–73 in a nailbiter against West Virginia University. Texas junior Madison Booker looked unstoppable against Oregon, scoring 40 points along with eight rebounds and five assists.
Texas beat Kentucky earlier in the season, 64–53. In that game, Kentucky limited Booker to just eight points. But Texas also relied heavily on their forwards—particularly sophomore Justice Carlton—to win the battle in the paint.
In this Sweet 16 matchup, will Texas emerge victorious again, led by Booker or Carlton? Or will Kentucky, led by junior center Clara Strack, bounce back to make it to their first Elite Eight in over a decade? Only time will tell, and both teams will have to bring their A game to come out with the win.
Lucille’s prediction: Kentucky
Maia’s prediction: Texas
No. 1 University of South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 4 University of Oklahoma Sooners (Saturday, 5:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN)
The Gamecocks and Sooners have already faced off this season, and Oklahoma came out on top in a 94–82 overtime win. In that game, Oklahoma limited South Carolina’s shooting to just 37 percent from the field and 23.8 percent from three. Oklahoma stars freshman Aaliyah Chavez and senior Raegan Beers combined for 44 points in that game—well above their average 34.1 combined PPG. But though Oklahoma may have won the season matchup against the Gamecocks, that doesn’t mean these two teams will play the same during the tournament.
For one, South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley is far more experienced with deep tournament runs than Oklahoma head coach Jennie Baranczyk. During Staley’s 18-year tenure as head coach, she has led the Gamecocks to eight Elite Eights and three national championship wins—the most recent in 2024. In contrast, this season is Baranczyk’s first Sweet 16 appearance in her 14 years as a head coach—she first served for nine years as the head coach at Drake University before leaving to join Oklahoma in 2021.
While the dynamic duo of Chavez and Beers will likely lead the way for Oklahoma, any one of South Carolina’s players could come up big in this matchup. What makes the Gamecocks elite is the depth on their roster—which the Sooners lack. Whether that depth will be enough to push past Chavez and Beers will be key in this game.
Lucille’s prediction: South Carolina
Maia’s prediction: South Carolina
No. 3 Texas Christian University (TCU) Horned Frogs vs. No. 10 University of Virginia Cavaliers (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN)
As the lowest seed still remaining in the tournament, Virginia has proved that it’s not about the odds, but how you overcome them. Before even making it to the first round, the Cavaliers played Arizona State University in a First Four game. After winning that game by two, Virginia won back-to-back overtime games to make it to their first Sweet 16 since 2000.
TCU, on the other hand, won in an overtime game against the University of Washington in the Round of 32 after beating the University of California San Diego, 86–40. The Horned Frogs are led by graduate student Olivia Miles, who notched a triple-double—which is achieved when a player records double-digits in three statistical categories during a single game—in their first-round game and a double-double in their second-round game.
We’ve seen that Virginia will do anything in their power to keep their season alive. Junior Kymora Johnson played every minute of Virginia’s double-overtime game against Iowa, scoring 28 points and the tying point at the end of regulation and at the end of the first overtime. Johnson’s matchup against Miles will be one to watch as both fight to lead their teams to the Elite Eight, which would be TCU’s second Elite Eight appearance and Virginia’s first since 1996. Virginia has nothing to lose—it’s already an impressive feat that they’ve made it this far in the tournament—so all the pressure will be on the Horned Frogs to show that they deserve their high seeding.
Lucille’s prediction: TCU
Maia’s prediction: TCU