This year’s Final Four teams are a testament to the parity in women’s college basketball today, and there is no clear runaway favorite to win the title. These last three games of March Madness will be a test of experience and star power. UConn’s senior Paige Bueckers has put together a historic run for the Huskies. Over the last three games of the Tournament, she has been averaging 35 points per game (ppg). Performances like Bueckers’ will be essential for these last four teams if they want to become the national champion.
I am not surprised UConn and the University of South Carolina have made it this far. UConn is a historic program led by a Hall of Fame coach, Geno Auriemma. The Huskies have reached the Final Four 24 times, the most in Division I college basketball history. Similarly, South Carolina has been a consistently dominant force since 2021. Their 2025 appearance marks their fifth consecutive trip to the Final Four. On the other hand, UCLA and Texas are not as accustomed to making it this far in the Tournament. It has been over 20 years since the Longhorns last reached the Final Four in 2003. The newest and most inexperienced program in the Final Four is UCLA. Before this year, their deepest NCAA Tournament runs were to the Elite Eight in 1999 and 2018. It has been seven years since their last Elite Eight appearance, and this marks their first Final Four berth.
No. 2 University of Connecticut (UConn) Huskies (79), No. 1 University of Los Angeles (UCLA) Bruins (78)
If I had predicted this game before Bueckers dropped 40 points against the University of Oklahoma, I probably would have had the Bruins winning by more than five points. This is not to discredit the Huskies’ achievements during the regular season. Having a regular season record of 35-3 shows discipline and roster depth, which are a testament to the incredible coaching and scouting from UConn’s front office. However, all three of their losses came from teams who made it to the Sweet 16: The University of Southern California (USC), the University of Notre Dame and the University of Tennessee. To understand how the Huskies will perform against UCLA, I averaged their statistics against the three best teams they played in the regular season: their win against No. 2-ranked South Carolina and their losses against No. 4-ranked USC and No. 8-ranked Notre Dame. Across those three games, the Huskies averaged 45.2 percent from the field while holding their opponents to 43.2 percent. Compare that to their two most recent postseason games against USC and Oklahoma, in which their opponent’s field goal percentage plummeted to 35.5 percent while UConn’s remained a respectable 44.4 percent. These stats show UConn’s defense doesn’t just remain at the high level it has been at during the regular season but actually improves significantly when faced with the threat of elimination.
UCLA has quickly dismantled every team they have faced in the Tournament. Their average margin of victory up to this point is 19 points. That said, UConn is by far the toughest opponent the Bruins will have faced. Although the two teams never matched up in the regular season, I think UConn’s structure is similar to USC’s. Both teams have a high-scoring guard—sophomore Juju Watkins for USC and Bueckers for UConn—as their number one player, and both teams have a solid center with a jumper—senior Kiki Iriafen for USC and freshman Sarah Strong for UConn—as their number two. I looked at USC and UCLA’s three matchups during the season and compared the output from UCLA’s star players, juniors Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice. During the matchups against USC, Betts averaged 15.3 ppg, nearly 5 points below her average. Rice averaged 13.0 ppg in the games against USC, nearly identical to her average. When faced with a tough opponent, it is crucial that your star players step up and increase their regular output. I don’t think UCLA can find the extra strength needed to win in a closely contested game against an experienced and veteran team like UConn.
No. 1 University of Texas Longhorns (62), No. 1 University of South Carolina Gamecocks (65)
This will be South Carolina and Texas’ fourth matchup of the season; they met twice during the regular season and then again during the Southeastern Conference (SEC) tournament final. The Gamecocks blew out Texas in their first meeting with a final score of 67-50. In their second regular season meeting, Texas responded with a close victory by a score of 66-62. Finally, in the SEC Championship, South Carolina destroyed Texas in a blistering 64-45 win. In that game, the Gamecocks dominated in the paint, scoring 40 points in the paint alone compared to Texas’ 18 points. That said, sophomore Madison Booker has been incredible for the Longhorns. She’s averaging 18.8 points and 8.0 rebounds per game across four NCAA Tournament games. Her contributions have led Texas to an average margin of victory of 20 points. Aside from their 60-point win in the first round, South Carolina’s two most recent Tournament games have been much closer; they beat Maryland and Duke by only four points during the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. Although these games were close, they showed the Gamecocks’ ability to win in closely contested games.
Texas’ most impressive win came in the Elite Eight against Texas Christian University (TCU). The Longhorns showed off their suffocating defense by forcing 21 turnovers and holding TCU to just 27 percent shooting from the field. Throughout the season, Texas has been extremely inconsistent from beyond the arc. To counter this weak spot, the Longhorns have avoided the three-point line completely. In their win against TCU, they only attempted three three-pointers, making two of them. This hole in their offense will be glaring and easily exploitable by the Gamecocks. Interestingly, the secret to South Carolina’s success lies in their bench depth. South Carolina’s five highest-played bench players combined for a total of 1,238 field goals attempted on 51.2 percent from the field during the regular season and the postseason up until this point. Compare that to Texas’ five highest-played bench players, who only attempted 799 field goals and shot 49.7 percent from the field. South Carolina’s bench will outperform Texas’, and it will be the deciding factor in the Gamecocks’ victory.